From Almanacs to Satellites: How Campers Have Predicted the Weather from the 1860s to Today

 

 

 

"...a dull, heavy sound came up from the depths of the forest,—a solemn, ominous sound, breaking the dead silence. Another and another followed; a muffled roar, filling the air, so that one might not tell from what quarter it came.

"Yes," said John, as the noise died away,—"yes, it will rain. The old trees never lie. Those sounds you have just heard are made by falling trees. You always hear them before a storm."

"But, John," I exclaimed, "what makes them fall this morning? There is not a breath of air stirring."

"I don't know," responded John, "what makes them fall. I have often thought how queer it is.

Many a time have I sat in my canoe on a morning like this, when there was not wind enough to float a feather, and seen the old fellows come crashing down. I tell you what," continued he, "it makes a man feel solemn, to see tree after tree, great, giant chaps, a hundred and fifty feet high, begin all of a sudden to quiver and reel, and then fall headlong to the ground; when, for aught you can see, there is no earthly cause for it. Let us sit still a moment and hear them."

I did as requested. Now, far away in the forest, the same dull, heavy roar would arise, linger a moment in the air, then die away. Then, nigh at hand, a rushing sound, as the broom-like top of some mighty pine swept through the air, would fall upon the ear, followed by the crash of broken boughs and the heavy thump of the huge trunk as it smote the earth. Then, far away, half smothered between the mountains, would rise again the dull roar, and we knew another monarch of the woods had yielded its life at an unknown summons.

I am free to confess, that John's remark as to the effect of such a phenomenon upon one, was then and there fully verified by myself. I know nothing more mysteriously solemn than this sound of falling trees coming up from the forest,—falling, so far as you can see, without cause. What unseen hand smites them? What pressure, unfelt by man, pushes their vast trunks over? Is it to the Spirit of the coming Storm they bow, prostrating themselves in anticipation of his chariot's approach? Is there some subtle and hostile chemistry in the air which penetrates their fibres, weakening them to their fall? Or do these aged patriarchs of the wood, with fearful prophecy, foresee their hour of doom, and, in the breathless lull ere the tempest breaks, yield like an ancient Roman to their fate?

"Perchance," I said to John, "He who noteth the falling of a sparrow and marketh the boundary of human life, hath given the trees a limit also, which they may not pass; and these are being summoned, and so go down."

— William H.H. Murray, Adventures in the Wilderness (1869), p. 104


Imagine preparing for a camping trip in 1869. There is no weather app. No radar. No television meteorologist. No hourly forecast. There is not even the friend who "heard it might rain," because in 1869 that friend was guessing too. If you wanted to know whether rain was coming, you might consult an almanac, read the local newspaper, study the clouds, or simply rely on experience, folklore, and a general sense of foreboding.

Yet those campers were not necessarily reckless. They used the best forecasting tools available to them. It was a short list, but they used it thoroughly. The story of how outdoor enthusiasts have predicted the weather over the last 160 years closely parallels the story of technological progress itself. From folk wisdom and printed almanacs to radio broadcasts, television forecasts, internet weather services, smartphones, and satellite communicators, campers have continually gained new ways to answer a timeless question: What's the weather going to do?

 A Timeline of Camping Weather Forecasts

 

| Era | How campers got the forecast |

 

| Before 1870 | Weather lore, local observation, almanacs |

| 1870s–1920s | Telegraph forecasts and newspapers |

| 1920s–1950s | Radio forecasts become widespread |

| 1950s–1980s | Television weather reports dominate |

| 1980s–1990s | The Weather Channel and computer forecasting advances |

| 1990s–2000s | Internet weather services |

| 2007–present | Smartphone weather apps |

| 2010s–present | Satellite communicators deliver forecasts in remote backcountry |

For much of the nineteenth century, weather prediction rested on observation and tradition rather than organized science. Campers, farmers, hunters, and travelers relied on weather lore passed down through generations. Popular sayings such as "Red sky at night, sailor's delight; red sky in morning, sailor's warning" were common throughout rural America.[1] Rhymes were the preferred format, presumably because a forecast that rhymes is easier to remember than one that is correct.

Many signs focused on animal behavior, cloud formations, wind direction, and atmospheric changes. Some had a scientific basis. Others were little more than superstition. Telling them apart was left as an exercise for the camper. Regardless of accuracy, such observations were often the most practical forecasting tools available to someone heading into the woods in the 1860s. Experienced outdoorsmen learned to watch the sky carefully. Long before meteorologists issued forecasts, nature itself served as the weather service.

The passage above is a good example of how that "weather service" worked in practice: a real observation attached to an uncertain explanation. It comes from Murray's account of camp life in the Adirondacks, in which his guide, John, insists that the sound of falling trees always comes before a storm. John does not know why. He has simply watched it happen, which in 1869 counted as peer review.

Trees do fall in dead calm. Forest researchers have found that heartwood rot can cause trees to fail on their own, even in calm conditions, and one survey of a Great Lakes forest found that more than two-thirds of the large trees studied had some degree of heart rot. In the aging forests of the Adirondacks, a great many giants may have been a small push from failing. A hollow tree does not need a supernatural summons. Gravity is patient.

What John could not know was whether those falls actually signaled rain. I couldn't find a study that has tested that link, and the pattern may owe as much to memory as to meteorology: trees fall in fair weather too, but only the falls followed by rain got remembered. The stillness that made the sound so eerie may also be part of the answer. In windless air, with no rustle of leaves to mask it, a fall miles away could be heard where it normally would not be. A forest, it turns out, is much easier to eavesdrop on when nothing is talking over it.

John's sign was probably an honest observation, and the ominous meaning came from Murray's own flourish. Murray, for his part, was busy promoting the Adirondacks, and "an unseen hand smites them" makes better copy than "the tree was rotten." That combination of careful noticing and unproven inference is what forecasting by nature looked like in the 1800s.

By the mid-nineteenth century, almanacs had become one of America's most important sources of weather information. Publications such as The Old Farmer's Almanac offered long-range weather predictions, astronomical information, seasonal observations, planting calendars, and practical advice (see below).[2] For a family planning a summer camping excursion or extended travel, an almanac offered something valuable: a forecast months in advance. Whether that forecast was correct was a separate question, and one we'll return to.

 

 

[Excerpt of July weather from The Farmer’s Almanac 1850.]

 

Accuracy varied widely, but these publications enjoyed enormous popularity because better alternatives did not yet exist. In many rural communities, almanacs remained a trusted source of weather guidance well into the early twentieth century. A confident tone, it turns out, carries a long way. They occupied a unique place between folklore and science, combining observation, tradition, astronomy, and prediction into a single annual reference.[2]

Brief Detour: What a Camper in 1880 Would Have Known

Imagine you're preparing for a weeklong camping trip in the Adirondacks in 1880. You likely own an almanac. You probably read a local newspaper. If you're particularly experienced, you've spent years learning to read cloud formations and changing winds.

You might know:
✓ The season is expected to be wetter or drier than average according to an almanac.
✓ Local weather conditions reported in the newspaper.
✓ Traditional weather lore learned from family, farmers, hunters, or mariners.
✓ What the sky looks like right now.

You would not know:
✗ Whether a storm is currently forming two states away.
✗ What tomorrow's forecast will be with any certainty.
✗ Whether severe weather is approaching your campsite.

One of the most important advances in weather forecasting had nothing to do with meteorology itself. It was the invention and expansion of the telegraph. Before telegraph networks, weather reports traveled only as fast as people could carry them. By the time news of a storm reached the next town, the storm often had too. The telegraph changed this by allowing observations from distant locations to be transmitted rapidly across the country.[3]

Beginning in 1849, the Smithsonian Institution organized a growing network of observers who submitted weather reports by telegraph. By 1860, hundreds of stations were reporting conditions daily.[3] For the first time, meteorologists could see weather patterns developing over large regions rather than simply recording local conditions after storms arrived. Documenting a storm after it hit had, until then, been the state of the art. This capability eventually led to organized forecasting efforts.

In 1870, Congress authorized a national weather service under the U.S. Army Signal Corps, laying the foundation for what would later become the National Weather Service.[4] The Army may seem an odd home for a weather service, but the Signal Corps ran telegraphs, and telegraphs were the whole game. For campers and travelers, weather forecasting was no longer limited to local observation. Storms could increasingly be tracked as they moved from one area to another.

By the late nineteenth century, newspapers had become the primary means by which weather forecasts reached the public. Daily weather reports began appearing alongside national and local news. Weather maps and telegraph-based forecasts gave readers a much broader understanding of upcoming conditions than previous generations had ever enjoyed.[5]

A camper preparing for a weekend trip in 1895 could buy a morning paper and learn about weather systems developing hundreds of miles away. Forecasts were not always issued daily, and some covered several days or even a week at a time. Accuracy remained limited by modern standards, but the forecast was printed in ink, which has always lent a certain authority, and forecasting was becoming increasingly scientific. As newspapers improved, almanacs gradually lost their role as the principal source of weather prediction. They remained popular and widely read, but daily newspaper forecasts increasingly guided practical decisions involving travel and outdoor recreation.[5] Even so, if you time-travel back to a 19th century campground, Gore-Tex rain gear should be at the top of your packing list.

 

The arrival of radio in the 1920s transformed weather communication. Instead of reading forecasts in newspapers, Americans could hear updated information broadcast directly into their homes. Weather reports became a regular feature of radio programming, making forecasts more immediate and accessible than ever before.[5]

 

For campers and vacationing families, radio offered a major advantage. Weather information could be received shortly before departure instead of relying on a newspaper printed hours earlier. Severe weather warnings also became more effective. Communities could receive alerts quickly when storms threatened, improving public safety and reducing dependence on rumor or delayed reports. Rumor, which had long held a monopoly on the job, lost market share. By the mid-twentieth century, radio forecasts had largely surpassed almanacs as the primary source of practical weather information for most Americans.[5]

In this era, auto campers were the only ones who could bring a radio along to the campground, since the sets were large and heavy (see above). Even after transistor radios arrived, only some campers carried one on foot. Anyone counting ounces mostly decided the sky was lighter.

Brief Detour: What a Camper in 1925 Would Have Known

By 1925, camping had entered the automobile age. You can now listen to weather reports on the radio before leaving home. Newspapers provide increasingly sophisticated forecasts generated from telegraph-based observation networks. Compared to a camper in 1880, however, your confidence in the forecast is significantly higher.

You might know:
✓ Today's forecast.
✓ Regional weather trends.
✓ Storm warnings issued by forecasting agencies.

You would still not know:
✗ Real-time storm movement.
✗ Localized hourly forecasts.
✗ Mountain-specific weather conditions

Even as radio and newspapers improved forecasts at home, campers in federal parks and forests still depended on the people who ran them. In the early twentieth century, the ranger station was the central hub for weather information at many campgrounds. Rangers received forecasts at park headquarters by mail, telegraph, or telephone, then wrote out the daily report by hand and posted it on wooden bulletin boards at entrance stations and busy campgrounds (above). It was low-tech, durable, and immune to dead batteries.

Warnings also traveled by voice. Beginning in the 1920s, the National Park Service's evening campfire programs, best remembered for storytelling, gave rangers a way to warn a large group of campers about approaching weather, active wildlife, or trail closures. A captive audience with marshmallows remains hard to beat as a delivery system. Farther out, rangers on horseback patrolled deep into the backcountry, carrying message logs and warning dispersed campers directly or hand-delivering evacuation notices when a severe storm or forest fire approached.

Behind the scenes, the network kept growing. In the 1910s and 1920s, the U.S. Forest Service strung miles of single-wire telephone lines through trees across federal lands, letting rangers in remote fire lookout towers call down to base stations on crank telephones the moment they spotted lightning or smoke. In effect, the trees were drafted as utility poles. By the mid-1930s, federal agencies had begun adopting portable two-way radios. Rangers could receive instant weather updates from regional hubs and pass warnings to the public through bulletin boards or by telling campers to tune their car radios to local frequencies.[6]

Television weather forecasting emerged during the 1950s and became a central part of American life in the decades that followed (left). For the first time, viewers could actually see weather maps, fronts, pressure systems, and storm tracks. Fronts, previously a matter of faith, now came with arrows. Meteorologists could visually explain atmospheric developments rather than relying solely on spoken or printed descriptions.

This period also coincided with tremendous growth in recreational camping. Following World War II, improved highways, automobile ownership, and expanding public parks brought camping into the mainstream. Before departing for a campground or national park, many families checked the evening weather forecast. A meteorologist gesturing at a map became one of the most trusted people in the county. Meanwhile, advances in meteorological science continued. Forecasts benefited from weather balloons, radar systems, satellites, and increasingly powerful computers that made forecasting more accurate than ever before.[4]

Brief Detour: What a Camper in 1955 Would Have Known

The family station wagon is packed. Canvas tents and aluminum coolers are loaded. Before leaving for the campground, everyone gathers around the television. For the first time in history, weather can be seen as well as heard.

You might know:
✓ Forecast highs and lows.
✓ Rain chances for the next day or two.
✓ Storm locations shown on weather maps.
✓ Hurricane and severe weather warnings.

You would still lack:
✗ Interactive radar.
✗ Long-range detailed forecasts.
✗ Instant weather updates while traveling.

Almanacs never actually disappeared. The Old Farmer's Almanac and the Farmers' Almanac remain popular today, but their role changed significantly during the twentieth century. Throughout the late 1800s and early 1900s, almanacs filled a critical need because reliable daily forecasts were difficult to obtain. By the middle of the twentieth century, however, radio and television provided more timely information and increasingly accurate short-range forecasts.[5]

As a result, almanacs transitioned from practical forecasting tools to cultural and historical publications. Readers continued buying them for gardening information, astronomy content, folklore, recipes, and tradition, but most travelers relied on professional meteorological forecasts when making outdoor plans. (If you are curious what sort of recipes campers prepared in the past we explore that in Trail Grub and Trail Hydration).

One reason campers still buy almanacs today is the long-term forecast. I decided to test this myself. I have bought The Old Farmer's Almanac two years in a row, and I used it to plan my vacation time four to five months in advance for a few backpacking trips. I was remarkably surprised at how accurate the predictions about general seasonal trends were in both years. However, modern studies have found that almanacs' long-term predictions are rarely more accurate than a coin flip, and they should be trusted accordingly. So, either I got lucky in the two years I tried, or I'm incredibly gullible. The fact that I spent money on not one but two almanacs in the twenty-first century probably favors the latter.

A notable exemption from many guidebooks in the first century of recreational camping is weather forecasting. Nearly none I have referenced address the topic. One thorough 1961 guide nearly 600 pages long covers everything from air travel to underwear, but not weather forecasts. The lack of advice may simply be that the authors assumed people knew how to handle this task.

For weather enthusiasts, the launch of The Weather Channel in 1982 marked another major milestone. Weather information became available twenty-four hours a day. Campers could now check forecasts continuously instead of waiting for a scheduled segment during the news. All one had to do was survive the screeching, alien-like noise that served as the soundtrack of getting on the net in the 1990s.

Even more important was the rise of advanced computer forecasting models. Meteorologists gained increasingly sophisticated tools for simulating atmospheric conditions and predicting storm movement. Forecast accuracy steadily improved throughout the 1980s and 1990s, and outdoor enthusiasts planning backpacking trips, canoe expeditions, and mountain climbs benefited from forecasts that grew more detailed and reliable.

Brief Detour: What a Camper in 1995 Would Have Known

The internet is beginning to change everything. Before leaving for a camping trip, you might sit down at a desktop computer and pull up a weather website. For the first time, ordinary campers have access to many of the same forecasting tools previously reserved for meteorologists and government agencies. The challenge is that once you leave home, the forecast typically stays behind.

You can now access:
✓ Multi-day forecasts.
✓ Weather radar images.
✓ Satellite imagery.
✓ Regional weather discussions.
✓ Severe weather alerts.

The internet revolutionized weather forecasting for ordinary citizens. By the late 1990s and early 2000s, weather websites like weather.com (above) allowed users to access forecasts whenever they wanted. Radar images, satellite photographs, hourly forecasts, precipitation predictions, and severe weather alerts became available from home computers.[5]

Campers no longer needed to rely on generalized regional forecasts. They could examine detailed weather information for specific destinations, often days before departure. For many outdoor enthusiasts, weather forecasting shifted from a passive activity to an active one. Rather than simply consuming forecasts provided by newspapers or broadcasters, users began exploring large amounts of weather data themselves.

Forecasts also became more precise about altitude. Mountains generate their own weather, and temperatures typically fall several degrees Fahrenheit for every thousand feet climbed, so a forecast for the trailhead town can badly misjudge conditions at a high camp, a fact many hikers learn the hard way, usually in a T-shirt. Elevation-specific tools like Mountain-Forecast.com (below on right), along with the National Weather Service's forecast tables that list details such as the freezing level, let backpackers check conditions closer to the altitude where they will actually be.[7]

The introduction of smartphones brought perhaps the greatest change in everyday weather awareness. Modern weather applications deliver forecasts, radar imagery, severe weather alerts, lightning tracking, wind predictions, and detailed hourly data directly to users' pockets.

For campers, weather information is now available almost anywhere cellular service exists. Forecasts can be checked repeatedly before and during trips, allowing plans to be adjusted as conditions change.[7a] Compared to the newspapers and almanacs of the nineteenth century, the amount of available information is almost unimaginable. I routinely consult two to three weather apps before leaving on a trip to compare sources. I realize that makes me sound nerdy, but here you are reading an article about the history of weather forecasts. So who's nerdy now?

Most backpacking and camping trips last only three to four days, with the vast majority under a week. Modern forecasts are reliable enough that you can screenshot the forecast before leaving and trust it reasonably well for seven to eight days. Some websites offer forecasts fourteen days out or more, but experts advise treating anything beyond about eight days with caution, since it 

is right only about 50 to 60 percent of the time. Data that far out is better for general trends, such as cooler or warmer, wetter or drier than average.

 
One thing that has not changed is how ranger stations share weather reports. Today, weather warnings are still printed and posted on bulletin boards to inform campers. Technology has advanced enormously, but the humble bulletin board endures.

Despite all these advances, one problem persisted. Many of the most desirable camping and backpacking destinations remain beyond cellular coverage. For decades, campers venturing into remote wilderness areas often lost access to updated forecasts once they left civilization behind. Any weather information they carried into the backcountry was effectively frozen in time.Modern satellite communicators have largely solved that problem. Devices such as the Garmin inReach (left) can receive weather updates through satellite networks even when users are far beyond traditional cellular coverage. Backpackers, paddlers, hunters, and mountaineers can request updated forecasts deep within remote wilderness areas.[7b] (If you ever wondered what other sorts of electronics campers and backpackers have carried into the woods, check out Camper's Love-Hate Relationship with Electronics)

For today's camper, this capability would seem almost magical to someone from the 1860s. A person standing alone in a mountain valley can now receive weather information generated from satellites orbiting Earth, analyzed by supercomputers, and transmitted through space directly into the palm of their hand.

I have used such data on several occasions over the past ten years. I have found it most helpful on longer expeditions that last a week or more. For my weekend backpacking trips, it seemed more guy-with-gadgets than experienced-backpacker-extraordinaire. I always aim to look like the latter. Of course, this kind of backcountry access is not universal, because it still comes at a cost. Perhaps in the future it will become the default and we will all be as constantly connected to the weather as we are in the city. For now, we old-timers will continue to settle for the ancient tech: our eyeballs.

Brief Detour: What a Backpacker Knows Today

Imagine a backpacker standing beside an alpine lake hundreds of miles from the nearest city. They carry a smartphone, GPS receiver, digital maps, emergency communications equipment, and possibly a satellite communicator. This camper possesses more weather information than the most experienced meteorologist of the nineteenth century could have imagined. And yet, they still glance at the clouds.


They can potentially access:
✓ Hour-by-hour forecasts.
✓ Real-time radar.
✓ Lightning alerts.
✓ Wind predictions.
✓ Satellite imagery.
✓ Severe weather warnings.
✓ Updated forecasts delivered through satellite communications

The history of weather forecasting in camping reflects the broader history of technology itself. Campers progressed from weather folklore and annual almanacs to telegraph-based forecasting networks, daily newspapers, radio broadcasts, television weather reports, internet forecasting services, smartphones, and satellite communicators. Each technological advance brought greater accuracy, faster information, and improved safety.

Yet one thing has remained unchanged. Experienced campers still watch the sky. Cloud formations, shifting winds, falling temperatures, and distant thunder continue to provide clues that no technology can entirely replace. The tools have changed dramatically, but the instinct to pay attention to nature remains as valuable today as it was 160 years ago.

Modern experts still stress this instinct. Outdoor educators and organizations such as the Washington Trails Association and Backpacker recommend checking the forecast before leaving, then watching the clouds and pressure changes once on the trail.[8] For many people who live in cities, reading the sky has become something of a lost art, yet in the backcountry it fills the gap between forecast updates. These skills are not more accurate than a modern forecast, and no one should treat them as a replacement. What they offer is a real-time read on the sky right where you are standing, which can help you decide to take shelter instead of pressing on, even when the forecast says the weather should hold.[9] The forecast, after all, isn't the one standing under the cloud.

Whether a camper in 1869 studied a red sunset, a family in 1955 listened to a radio forecast, or a backpacker today requests an inReach weather update from a satellite hundreds of miles overhead, they are all trying to answer the same enduring question: Will tomorrow bring sunshine, or rain?


By David F. Garner

Appendix: Photos

                               

[Paddlers mount portable radio system with mobile antenna rig into canoe as proof of concept, c. 1920]

 

 

[Fire towers like this one at the summit of Mount Uncanoonuc in New Hampshire were also used in their early days to spot approaching severe weather. c. 1920s]

[Bulletin boards are one campground technology that has changed little over the years. c. 2018]

Sources

[1] National Weather Service. "Weather Lore and Folklore." National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Available through the National Weather Service educational resources.


[2] The Old Farmer's Almanac. https://www.almanac.com


[3] National Weather Service. History of the National Weather Service Timeline. Discusses telegraph-based weather observation networks established by the Smithsonian beginning in 1849 and their role in forecasting. weather.gov


[4] National Weather Service. History of the National Weather Service. Notes creation of the U.S. weather forecasting service in 1870 and the technological progression from telegraphs to radar, satellites, and modern forecasting systems. weather.gov; popularmechanics.com


[5] National Weather Service. NOAA Weather Wire Service History. Describes the evolution of weather information distribution through telegraphs, radio, television, satellite communications, and internet delivery systems. weather.gov; en.wikipedia.org


[6] "History of Fire Lookouts in Snoqualmie," Snoqualmie Fire Lookouts, accessed September 22, 2026, https://www.snoqualmielookouts.org//lookout-history.


[7] "Hiking Weather Basics: The Complete Guide for Safe Trails." Goat Wanderlust. https://www.goatwanderlust.com/hiking-weather-basics/


[7a] Skurka, Andrew. "Tutorial: Predicting backcountry weather conditions." https://andrewskurka.com/backcountry-weather-conditions-forecasting-methods-sources/


[7b] "Reading Weather on the Trail: What Hikers Need to Know." Going Gear. https://goinggear.com/blogs/going-prepared/reading-weather-on-the-trail-what-hikers-need-to-know


[8] Washington Trails Association. "How to Predict Mountain Weather." https://www.wta.org/go-outside/trail-smarts/how-to/how-to-predict-mountain-weather


[9] Backpacker. "Backcountry Weather Forecasting Skills All Hikers Should Know." https://www.backpacker.com/skills/beginner-skills/backcountry-weather-forecasting/